Mideast: On Target

Last week’s two day IDF operation in the northern Gaza Strip was a temporary, local, limited success but obviously raised macro questions concerning the overall government objectives in its policies towards the Islamic fundamentalist Hamas.  There are those who demand that Israel engage in discussions with Hamas to arrange a “tahadiya” (period of calm) or even a “hudna” (Islamic cease-fire).  On the opposing side others demand a full offensive to destroy the Hamas political/terror infrastructure in Gaza.  And as usual, until a well thought out, well designed policy is implemented, government decision makers will decide on limited engagements and diplomatic activity to weaken the Hamas as much as possible.  This middle road has its ups and downs, but one thing is for sure, there is a continual escalation with each new round of fighting.  After US Sec. of State Rice’s visit here there is talk of arranging an overall cease-fire just as Israel is said to be planning a major offensive operation into Gaza.

The elimination of Hezbollah’s military chief of staff and arch terrorist, Imad Mughniyah, on Feb. 12 was fully justified.  Many are claiming Israel was behind his removal by car bomb in one of the most heavily guarded neighborhoods in Damascus despite official denials from Jerusalem.  The Hezbollah is threatening revenge not only against Israel but against all Jewish targets abroad thereby making clear not only its objective of obliterating the Jewish State but also its enmity against all Jews.

“But did we win?”  The answer is anything but “Yes.”  Certainly no knock-out, but by the middle of August 2006 it appeared we were ahead on points.  Today no one really knows, until the next round of course.  Many believe Israel lost the war.  And although the Hezbollah is quiet for the moment they are rearmed and gearing up for the next round sometime in the not so distant future.  With the final publication of the Winograd Report in lieu of the Second War in Lebanon the IDF and the Israeli political system have once again been jolted.  A majority of Israelis want PM Ehud Olmert to resign as a result of the “failure” to win the war against the Hezbollah a year and a half ago.  He refuses, claiming he takes “full responsibility” and will continue initiating the improvements necessary in the army and overall preparation for the next encounter over Israel’s northern border.

Last week any pretense of a border between the Gaza Strip and northeast Sinai were literally blown away by the Hamas as they detonated explosives toppling the wall marking the international line with Egypt.  Previously tunnel traffic in arms, ammunition and terrorists between the two made a mockery of the “border” yet there were those who continued to insist that some sort of barrier existed.  The “breakout” engineered by the Hamas showed they were in full control of the Strip and in the showdown with Egypt they had the upper hand.  In essence Israel’s cutback in fuel and supplies to the pro-Hamas/Jihad Palestinian population is cited as the reason for the internal pressure cooker leading to the “escape” into Sinai.  Lacking in supplies, but nowhere near a humanitarian crisis the Hamas directed the destruction of the border barrier so scrupulously filmed by the Arab satellite station Al-Jazeera.  Hundreds of thousands streamed across into Sinai to buy basic necessities and the obligatory cartons of cigarettes.

Predictably, the Israeli effort to pressure Hamas and other terrorist organizations through restriction of fuel and other goods to the population of Gaza has begun to buckle under the weight of international criticism.  We predicted this outcome months ago (see “The Gaza Enemy,” Mid-East: On Target Archives, September 21, 2007); now we are watching the tragedy play itself out.  Hamas and UN agencies will naturally exaggerate the humanitarian catastrophe; world opinion will commiserate with the Palestinian victims of Israeli oppression; the true victims (the Israeli civilians targeted daily by Palestinian terrorist rockets) will be forgotten and ignored; and the Israeli government will assure the Palestinians that it will not permit a humanitarian crisis, thus negating the punitive threat value of the entire policy.  There may exist a worse way to confront the Gaza terrorists, but frankly we are hard pressed to think of one.